Models show the way but people make the choices

How can Sweden succeed in transitioning to a fossil-free energy system? It is a question that requires both mathematics and human insight, says Anna Krook-Riekkola, Professor of Energy Engineering at Luleå University of Technology. Through system analysis and model-based scenario analysis, it becomes possible to see how different decisions influence one another over time—and to understand that what benefits one sector is not always best for the system as a whole.

"Models do not provide the answers; they reveal the connections. It is we humans who must weigh values, interests, and risks," says Anna Krook-Riekkola.

In her research, Krook-Riekkola’s group uses mathematical models that describe the entire energy system, from energy supply to its use in housing, industry, and transport. The models analyze how future societal energy needs can be met with limited resources, at the lowest possible cost, and with respect to climate goals.

The analysis makes it possible to compare different scenarios and show how technology choices, policy instruments, and behaviors interact. In this way, system analysis becomes a tool that helps both policymakers and citizens discuss the path forward.

"When we put the model results on the table, something happens in the room. The discussion changes. System analysis can give policymakers and citizens a shared language for talking about the future," said Anna Krook-Riekkola during her recent inaugural lecture at Luleå University of Technology.

Different paths toward the same goal

Anna Krook-Riekkola emphasizes that the energy transition looks different in different countries. Variations in infrastructure, industrial structure, political priorities, and renewable energy potential mean that each country must find its own energy mix.

A concrete example from her research concerns the role of biomass in the future. In public debate, many have pointed out that there is not enough biomass to meet all needs—and that is true—but what is often overlooked is that these resources will be needed for different purposes at different times.

"In the coming years, biomass will continue to play an important role in district heating, industry, and through blending into fossil fuels. Further ahead, it will be most useful where electrification is not possible, as well as for producing plastics and balancing the electricity system, for example through combined heat and power linked to district heating and via gas turbines," says Anna Krook-Riekkola.

Thinking about the future together

The energy transition is not only about technology but also about how people understand and accept change. That is why it is crucial to combine data with dialogue, says Krook-Riekkola.

System analysis does not predict the future, but it helps us ask better questions. And perhaps that is where the key to the transition lies.

"The future is not something that simply happens; it can be shaped. Models can show what is possible, but it is up to us to decide which future we want," says Anna Krook-Riekkola.

• Energy engineering