Adrian Ulfberg
20 March 2026
New method for more reliable assessment of concrete dam stability
Concrete dams are essential for energy and water supply, but their safety must be continuously assessed as loads and requirements change. In his doctoral dissertation, Adrian Ulfberg demonstrates how probability-based analysis, combined with advanced computational models and physical testing, can provide more reliable assessments of the stability of concrete dams.
“To be able to make realistic safety assessments, we need to take into account uncertainties regarding both loads and material properties,” says Adrian Ulfberg, a doctoral student in structural engineering at Luleå University of Technology.
Focus on sliding and overturning
In his dissertation, *Reliability-based assessment of concrete dams considering combined sliding and overturning*, he analyzes how the risk of sliding and overturning can be assessed simultaneously, rather than separately. This provides a more comprehensive picture of how a dam actually behaves under load.
– Traditional methods analyze one motion pattern at a time and often disregard uncertainties in loads and material parameters. My research shows that multiple motions likely interact and that a more reliable safety assessment, as well as a clearer understanding of key parameters, can be achieved using probabilistic methods
The work is based on nonlinear finite element models supplemented by scale model tests, in which smaller dam structures are physically loaded to validate the computational results. In this way, theory and practice are brought closer together.
Societal benefits for energy systems and dam safety
The research has clear societal benefits for the management of dams in hydropower and water regulation. Through more reliable safety analyses, owners and regulatory authorities can make better decisions regarding reinforcement, reconstruction, or continued operation.
The methods can help avoid both unnecessarily costly reinforcements and underestimation of risks. This is particularly important in an energy system where many dams are older and where the consequences of a dam failure can be very severe.
“The goal is to develop analytical tools that can be used both in new design projects and in the review of existing dams, so that safety can be maintained over time,” says Adrian Ulfberg.
Published:
Updated: