Agent based modelling of the integrated value chains of biogenic CO2, biochar and green methanol

The transition towards a climate-neutral energy and industrial system requires the development of integrated and robust bio-based value chains that can simultaneously address emission reductions, resource efficiency, and system flexibility. In this context, the combined value chains of biogenic CO₂, biochar, and green methanol are of increasing interest.

These value chains link biomass-based industrial activities, carbon management strategies, and renewable fuel production, thereby offering opportunities for both emission mitigation and value creation within regional and national energy systems. The overall aim of this project is to develop and apply an agent-based modelling approach to analyze the integrated value chains of biogenic CO₂, biochar, and green methanol within the regional energy system of Norrbotten, Sweden.

Biogenic CO₂ is emitted in significant quantities from established biomass-based industries such as sawmills, pulp and paper mills, biomass-fired combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and thermochemical conversion facilities. Being these emissions derived from biomass, their management is central to achieving negative or near-zero emission pathways. At the same time, biochar production via pyrolysis represents a pathway to long-term carbon storage as well as a supply of renewable carbon for industrial applications, notably in the steel industry. Pyrolysis plants may thus play a dual role in future systems, providing both a solid carbon product and a gaseous by-product, which can be combusted or upgraded, yielding a concentrated stream of biogenic CO₂.

Green methanol, produced through the synthesis of captured biogenic CO₂ and renewable hydrogen from electrolysis, is emerging as a versatile energy carrier and chemical feedstock. It can be used directly as a fuel in maritime and aeronautical applications, in gas turbines, and as a substitute for fossil fuels in industrial heating, including electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, or be further refined for land transport fuels, or even simply exported to foreign markets. The integration of green methanol production with biogenic CO₂ sources and biochar production therefore represents a promising, yet complex, system configuration.

Despite the technological maturity of some individual components, the large-scale deployment of these integrated value chains is challenged by uncertainties related to investment decisions, ownership structures, spatial configuration, and competing uses of biogenic CO₂. These challenges are inherently linked to the strategic behavior of heterogeneous actors operating within the regional/national energy system. In this context, agent-based modelling provides a suitable framework to analyze how different actors’ decisions and interactions may influence system outcomes. While such approaches are increasingly recognized within energy systems analysis, their application to many value chains remains limited, hence the motivation of the present project.

About the project

The project is funded as a strategic project within Bio4Energy, which is one of Sweden’s strategic research areas (SFO). The project runs until December 2027 and involves Professor Robert Lundmark, Professor Joakim Lundgren, and Professor Kentaro Umeki, all at Luleå University of Technology.