Domestic Forest Governance and Global Timber Markets: A Policy Impact Assessment
This project investigates harvest leakage, a phenomenon where reduced logging in one country can lead to increased harvesting in others. Such leakage can undermine climate action and biodiversity goals via global value chains. By analyzing historical data and future scenarios in Sweden, the project generates new knowledge on how national forestry decisions affect global timber trade flows and overall climate benefits
The project applies advanced systems analysis and database methods to map trade patterns and identify key market mechanisms related to forest products. It analyzes how changes in harvesting volumes and policy instruments can either amplify or reduce leakage effects. Scenario modeling is used to test different policy pathways and evaluate their impacts on both climate targets and industrial competitiveness.
This research is highly relevant for Sweden’s forest industry, which depends on secure access to sustainably sourced biomass. If harvesting is reduced without international coordination, the industry may become more reliant on imports with higher carbon footprints, potentially weakening both environmental performance and global competitiveness. Leakage risks could also reduce incentives for investment in sustainable forestry and bio-based innovation.
The project provides valuable insights for decision-makers and industry stakeholders seeking to strengthen sustainable forest management and develop a resilient bioeconomy without causing unintended increases in harvesting elsewhere. It shows how Swedish policies can be designed to minimize leakage while enhancing the forest sector’s contribution to national and global climate goals.
About the project
The project is funded by Marianne and Markus Wallenberg Foundation och run until December 2029. Together with Professor Robert Lundmark at Luleå University of Technology is Professor Andreas Stephan (project leader) and a PhD student from Linnaeus University.
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