Swedish Cities’ transition to sustainable energy system – Can models support the decision-making process?

Future energy systems are shaped by today’s decisions – from major choices at the societal level to small decisions in everyday life.

Within the framework of the SeOm project, The Swedish city’s transition to a sustainable energy system – can models support decision-making?, funded by the Swedish Energy Agency’s research programme MESAM, we explored how model-based scenario analysis can support local decision-makers in the energy and climate transition. Such decisions affect society as a whole – including technology, the economy, the environment, and people.

As part of the project, we produced a film that communicates key insights from the research. The film is divided into three parts, each based on one of the project’s central insights:

Part 1: We live in the energy system (0:00–1:06)

The project showed that many actors have a narrow understanding of both what should be discussed and what an energy system actually is. A key lesson for knowledge transfer from experts to practitioners is therefore the importance of framing the energy system as a sociotechnical system, co-shaped by technology, society, and human behavior.

Part 2: Models to support the energy transition (1:07–3:27)

Another key insight from the project is the need to focus more on how models can support decision-making, rather than on detailed descriptions of what is included in the models or their mathematical formulations. While such documentation is important for transparency and legitimacy, it should not be the main focus of broader communication.

Part 3: Choosing an energy future – scenarios as a space for action rather than a projection (3:28–5:10)

Many people find it difficult to think about the future, particularly in the face of uncertainty and complexity. The project shows that while much remains unknown, there are aspects of future energy systems that can be influenced by choices made today. A key insight is therefore the need to more clearly highlight how decisions and priorities at different levels, from national policy to municipal planning, shape incentives and make certain choices more or less attractive over time.

Anna Krook-Riekkola, Carina Lundmark, and Jonas Forsberg at Luleå University of Technology wrote the script and are responsible for the content. The film was produced by JN Filmproduktion in autumn 2025.