LTU TIMES modelling focus

The transition to a low carbon society is one of our greatest challenges. This will depend on both resource availability, technology development, economic development, policies in place as well as on our lifestyle and behaviour. Some of the key questions in order to achieve our goals concern how to use limited resources efficiently and how to design efficient energy policies.

The TIMES group at LTU studies different aspects of the transition to a sustainable energy system. We use different energy system optimisation models based on the TIMES modelling framework to explore different pathways for how the comprehensive energy system can evolve over time (20-50 years). We work both on a national level (TIMES-Sweden) and on a city level (a generic TIMES-City model). General information about the TIMES modelling framework and TIMES users can be found on the ETSAP webpage (https://iea-etsap.org/) External link.. For specific information about the TIMES concept and theory look into the TIMES documentation Part I External link., by Loulou et al (2016).

On a national level, a focus is to explore how Sweden can become GHG neutral by 2045. Sweden is a European country rich in biomass and energy-intensive industries, thus rich in energy resources but also with challenging freight transports and industries to decarbonize. This also reflects our current research activities, which includes improving the approach in the industry sector, the transport sector and how biomass is represented in the model. We are also developing a database with fossil free alternatives to all energy conversion and production processes within the industrial sectors. Thereby, we take a process-oriented approach, by describing important energy-intensive industries (e.g. pulp&paper, iron&steel and cement) in detail.

TIMES-Sweden was originally developed as a part of two European projects (NEED and RES2020 External link.), in which Krook-Riekkola was responsible for the Swedish model. The model is a complex optimization model with over 100,000 parameters that take into account technological, economic and environmental factors in the entire energy system, from energy supply to energy use. This is done in order to reach the demand for energy-related goods and services (e.g. to heat x single-family-houses, to produce y ton steel and to drive z person-km in cars). The demand projections are determined by soft-linking TIMES-Sweden with a national CGE model, in which we relied on multiple direction-specific connection points.

The model support decision makers to identify cost-effective ways to reach the given conditions and goals. For example, TIMES-Sweden have been used to explore different low carbon and net zero emission pathways until 2030 and 2045/50 as an input to the Cross-Party Committee on Environmental Objectives (Miljömålsberedningen); A climate policy framework for Sweden SOU 2016:21 External link. and A climate policy framework and a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden SOU 2016:47 External link. (Analysis with TIMES in SOU 2016:47, Part II, chapter 15 External link.). In the past we also provided analysis to the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket), and currently we support the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket) in their analysis on carbon-neutral pathways for Sweden.

On regional and city level, our focus is to identify how (and if) cities can benefit from complex comprehensive energy system models. Research-wise this includes how those models should differ from a national (or global) model, as well on how to communicate the results from those models. We are participating in European projects and international cooperations, e.g. the EU project CLIM2POWER and different ETSAP collaborations. For more information, see past and ongoing TIMES projects.