Model support in climate policy decision-making processes: managing uncertainty and complexity
The aim is to generate new knowledge on how optimization models and scenario practices, for evaluating climate policies and their impacts, can deal with fundamental uncertainty and complexity in more transparent ways.
Main activities
- Develop interfaces between an energy system model and alternative optimization techniques, e.g. to analyze key trade-offs and synergies and the robustness of different scenarios.
- Identify critical modeling assumptions that can be combined in transparent scenarios to address uncertainties related to e.g. technology choices, behavioral changes and policies.
- Identify criteria to guide the search process for optimization techniques towards a limited number of robust and critical scenarios.
- propose and test different key performance indicators that can be used to evaluate the consequences of different climate policy pathways. In this task, the TIMES analysis will be complemented by qualitative analyses.
Funding: FORMAS (3 MSEK)
Duration: 2020-2023 (applies for extension to 2024)
Contact person: Anna Krook-Riekkola
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